Current:Home > reviewsThe job market is cooling but still surprisingly strong. Is that a good thing? -OceanicInvest
The job market is cooling but still surprisingly strong. Is that a good thing?
View
Date:2025-04-15 16:54:07
The country's job market is finally showing signs of cooling – but it may still be a tad too strong.
That may sound strange. In a traditional economy, a strong labor market would usually be a good thing, but it's not so positive in an economy that continues to struggle with high inflation.
U.S. employers added 209,000 jobs in June, according to data out on Friday. That's below the pace of recent months but it's still a very solid number.
And the overall labor market remains tight, with the unemployment falling to 3.6%, low by historic standards. Meanwhile, wages also continue to rise, increasing at an annual rate of 4.4%.
Here are some key takeaways from the Labor Department's June jobs report:
The jobs engine is shifting down
It may be a slowdown, but any month when the U.S. economy adds more than 200,000 jobs is a solid gain.
In fact, the economy may need the labor market to slow down further to help bring down inflation.
There are some signs that's happening. June's employment increase was the smallest since December 2020.
Job gains for April and May were also revised down by a total of 110,000 jobs.
In the first six months of this year, monthly job growth averaged 278,000 jobs — a significant downshift from the previous six months when employers were adding an average of 354,000 jobs every month.
But all in all, this is still a strong jobs market.
Why the labor market is still so solid
The resilience of the job market has surprised many economists given that the Federal Reserve had been raising interest rates aggressively to slow down the economy and bring down inflation.
But people continue to spend, especially on activities like eating out or traveling on vacation.
In fact, people are spending about twice as much money on services as they do on goods, and lately that gap has widened.
Spending on services rose 0.4% in May while spending on goods fell by 0.5%.
Employers pay attention to those spending patterns when deciding whether to hire more workers — and it was reflected in June's jobs data.
Service industries such as health care and hospitality continued to add jobs last month, the data showed, but goods-oriented industries such as retail and warehousing have been cutting workers.
The unemployment rate remains at historic lows
There was another sign of just how tight the labor market remains: The unemployment rate dipped to 3.6% in June from 3.7% the month before.
The unemployment rate has been under 4% for 17 months in a row — the longest such stretch since the 1970s.
The jobless rate has remained low even as more workers have entered the workforce.
The share of working-age (25-54 year old) men in the job market rose to 89.2% in June — matching the highest level since February 2020. Meanwhile, the share of working-age women in the job market hit a record high of 77.8%.
Not everyone is reaping the benefits of the tight job market, however.
The unemployment rate for African Americans, which fell to a record low of 4.7% in April, has risen in each of the last two months, reaching 6% in June.
Here's more good news for workers: Wages are climbing
With solid job growth and low unemployment, employers are having to compete for workers with higher wages.
Average wages in June were 4.4% higher than a year ago. That matches the annual pay hikes in April and May.
Wages are not rising as fast as they did last year, but the good news is, neither are prices.
Annual wage gains in May outpaced price hikes, so workers' real buying power increased. (Inflation figures for June will be released next week.)
But a solid jobs market makes things harder for the Fed
Rising wages are good for workers, but the Federal Reserve is worried that if paychecks increase too rapidly, it could put upward pressure on inflation — especially in service industries where wages are one of employers' biggest expenses.
The Fed held interest rates steady at its last meeting in June, but signaled that might be just a pause and suggested that rates would likely need to continue rising to bring down inflation.
Now, with another month of solid job growth and rising wages, markets expect the Fed to raise interest rates by another quarter percentage point when policymakers meet later this month.
And more rate hikes could be in store should the economy continue to show signs of resilience.
veryGood! (1216)
Related
- $73.5M beach replenishment project starts in January at Jersey Shore
- I-95 overpass in Connecticut scorched during a fuel truck inferno has been demolished
- Mike Trout's GOAT path halted by injuries. Ken Griffey Jr. feels the Angels star's pain.
- What a judge’s gag order on Trump means in his hush money case
- NHL in ASL returns, delivering American Sign Language analysis for Deaf community at Winter Classic
- Marc Summers delves into career and life struggles in one-man play, The Life and Slimes of Marc Summers
- The 2024 Met Gala Garden of Time Theme and Dress Code, Explained
- Texas police officer dies after being injured when a tornado struck his home
- Travis Hunter, the 2
- How Author Rebecca Serle’s Journey to Find Love Inspired Expiration Dates
Ranking
- Nearly 400 USAID contract employees laid off in wake of Trump's 'stop work' order
- Lando Norris earns 1st career F1 victory by ending Verstappen’s dominance at Miami
- Pro-Palestinian protests stretch on after arrests, police crackdowns: Latest updates
- Former security guard convicted of killing unarmed man during an argument at a Memphis gas station
- Moving abroad can be expensive: These 5 countries will 'pay' you to move there
- Shades of Tony Gwynn? Padres praise Luis Arraez, who makes great first impression
- Lance Bass, Robin Thicke, more went to this massive billionaire wedding. The internet was enraged.
- Still no deal in truce talks as Israel downplays chances of ending war with Hamas
Recommendation
Israel lets Palestinians go back to northern Gaza for first time in over a year as cease
Where pro-Palestinian university protests are happening around the world
Missouri man charged in 1966 killing in suburban Chicago, based on DNA evidence
Marc Summers delves into career and life struggles in one-man play, The Life and Slimes of Marc Summers
Taylor Swift Eras Archive site launches on singer's 35th birthday. What is it?
The Eta Aquarid meteor shower, debris of Halley’s comet, peaks this weekend. Here’s how to see it
Driver dies after crashing into White House perimeter gate, Secret Service says
Actor Bernard Hill, of ‘Titanic’ and ‘Lord of the Rings,’ has died at 79